World Cup Nonsense

[Mid Life Crisis Marathon Man]

...might find Swinburne University's sports statistics site interesting, as it gives the statistical chances of each nation's progress through to and including the Cup final.

Quick summary:

Statistically speaking, Brazil is the likeliest nation to win the Cup, with daylight second, third, fourth and fifth. Germany and England are the next likely favourites. Gosh.

Of course now that Rooney's back IN, and the Brazilian's are getting increasingly embarrassed by Pele's erectile dysfunction ads all over the place, maybe the Angles are in with a much better shot?

And in case you were wondering (of course you were, weren't you?), Australia is given just a 0.5% chance of taking out the Cup.

Not that we care of course.

[Sweder]

I heard about this on the Baddiel and Skinner podcast - http://www.timesonline.co.uk - click on the dynamic duo to download free fairly amusing podcasts. They spoke to a Mr Finklestein who writes a stat column for Times Sport (The Fink Tank). This sad man knew all about the percentage chances and went into it all in some detail . . . but before I passed out he did mentioned something mildly interesting. And that was that the term 'match fit' is more or less redundant, statistically speaking.

The same saddos who compiled the 'chances of winning' numbers (based on team performance since 1998 apparently - yawn - ) looked at individual performances immediately before and directly after injury layoffs. The results show no discernable drop in performance on return to first team action. Ergo, 'match fitness' is, apparently, ballacks.

All grist to Mr Rooney's mill, I'd say.
Of course if he plays in any of the group games Ferguson may well implode and then we (United) can sign up Martin O’Neil (who says he’s ready to get back in the saddle) and we’ll dominate the world for the next umpteen . . .

[COLOR="DarkSlateGray"]The author of this thread has been removed for his regular session of ECT.
Normal service will be resumed as soon as possible.[/COLOR]

[Sweder]

Here's a link to the addictive GOALFINGER game.
Free to enter, and if you manage to win the World Cup you get entered into a free draw for FA Cup final tickets (all rounds after the third round) for next season. Yippee!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/fivelive/sport/foot...game.shtml

[Nigel]

But you won't be needing FA Cup Final tickets next season, Sweder. Not with the unaccustomed services of a one-footed striker on your team, you won't.

Leave them to me - West Ham have actually been using no-footed strikers for many years, especially for any important penalty shoot-outs that might crop up ...

[Sweder]

Good point well made Nigel.
Of course there's the painful (for some) memory of one Steven Gerrard, who according to the inimitable Motson was ready to collapse to the turf moments before lashing an unstoppable 150 yard thunderbolt past the unfeasibly short-armed Shay Given.

Seems like there's some call for one-legged players of a certain calibre

Speaking (as MLCMan was) of Pele's erectile dysfunction ads, I understand the Great man will attend the opening ceremony in the company of the lovely Claudia Schiffer this afternoon.

If she can't raise his spirits . . .

[Mid Life Crisis Marathon Man]

I'm sorry, it may be un-patriotic, treacherous even, but I just can't get excited by all the World Cup hysteria over here.

It's not that I have anything especially against the Socceroos, and indeed I will be very pleased for them if they do well, but I can't pretend to be part of it. Perhaps I could be best described as the polite bystander, quietly sinking a few brews and smiling at everybody else having a great time.

The whole Socceroo hype for me is a lot like the recent Commonwealth Games - suddenly we were all supposed to be hysterically excited about gymnastics, synchronised platform diving or skeet shooting. Sports we completely ignore even when they're free to watch any Saturday afternoon; suddenly we're paying exhorbitant ticket prices and pretending we understand even the most abstruse rules of these sports, for a whole two weeks; faking it like crazy and then forgetting all about them until the next Olympics.

Soccer, sorry "football", is somewhat like that for me. Now we're all supposed to be experts on the merits of the 4-4-3 formation at home versus the 5-4-2 away, depending on whether you have one or two pacey strikers (or something)... I'm just not that clued up about it.

And according to the cock-heads in the pub I've just been in, I'm a moron for not knowing that Ante Covic usually plays for Hammarby in Sweden. Thank goodness I didn't let on that I didn't even know he was a goalkeeper :o

So I'd like to say here and now that I'm bowing out early. I can't name more than about four Socceroos even when sober and would struggle to tell any of them apart from members of the male Welsh choir... unless they sang a few bars maybe.

The thing is that despite trying (I even subscribed to "Shoot!" magazine as a kid), I've just never been much of a soccer fan. I played it at school but my career as a left winger was short lived and was never witnessed by any talent scouts, who in any case may have pondered the wisdom of a completely right-footed player traipsing down the wrong side of the pitch.

I wish the Socceroos well. But I can't pretend to be inner sanctum on this one.

But I do enjoy reading everyone's comments

[El Gordo]

The Australians have a lot of support here amongst the Brits. Not quite sure why, I suspect it might be that we know that you are not (yet) a threat to England. Indeed it's probably the one major sport that we can confidently claim supremacy over you.

It may be slightly patronising but I think it's a revealing insight into relations between the two countries. I'd love the Australians to do well. (Forgive me if I avoid the dreadful "S*roos" word), and will be cheering them on.

Anyway, it's a shame that you can't feel involved. The World Cup is a massive event. Bigger than the Olympics. AFAIK, the USA is the only country in the entire world which isn't excited about it.

I must dash. 10 minutes to kick-off, and a cool, shining mahogany pint of Fuller's London Pride awaits me in the pub over the road in front of their plasma screen....

[SIZE="4"]YEEEEEHAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!! It's HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YABADABADOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!![/SIZE]

[Sweder]

Great start to the competition, tapering off somewhat in the second half.

Started strongly, sinking two pints of Guinness before half time. Sadly I was still in East Grinstead and facing a 30 minute drive home, so cut off the beer and dashed out at the break to head home. Kept up to speed via 5Live and watched the last 20 minutes (and a quite stunning German fourth) in the splendid isolation of a deserted living room. Where was my family? Sensibly soaking up the last rays of what has been a gloriously sun-drenched day.

6 goals, 2 pints, no running on the horizon, a home-made take-away curry (I'll explain sometime) on the way and Game 2 to follow at 8pm.

I love the World Cup

[El Gordo]

I heard something on Radio 5 Live this morning that resonated with me: "Football is my religion, and the World Cup is Christmas".

With my threadbare intellectual hat on (and after a few beers it's at a pretty jaunty angle), I should remind myself that I hate religion of any sort, and the way it forces its victims into irrational surrender. And yet, and yet I liked that remark, and it made me think about my own cerebral weakness for the beertiful game.

And like more conventional religions, it's all to do with potty training; what you learn on your mother's knee. 1966, as a kid, I went to a school literally across the way from Wembley Stadium. The 66 World Cup started before the end of term, and we were impressionable grist to the football mill. Life would never be the same.

And for these reasons, I understand MLCM's remarks, and thank him for them. He's dead right not to succumb to the hysteria, because devotion like this cannot be absorbed over a weekend or two. Football to me is what cricket is to him. It's internal, hard-won personal culture. Fair play to the man, I admire his honesty. And when I look at cricket and rugby, I totally understand where he's coming from. Cricket was something that I tripped over (literally, but that's another tale.... ) as an adult. It was never going to sink in properly.

--------------

Crikey, is that the time? Only minus 1 minute till the next game. Must dash once again.

Happy Christmas everyone. Hope we get the presents we yearn for.

[Sweder]

As the cathode rays cool after the first bout of opposing televisual punditry it's time to declare my allegiance to the Boy Lineker and his Merry Men.

This harks back to my childhood, when my Mum would tell us that all good things were on the BBC and anything on 'the other side' was inferior or evil (that never really washed with me - after all, was The Sweeney not the best thing on telly on the '70's?).

Anyway, the Beeb played their trump cards in the first few hours of World Cup '06 - opening ceremony, first match (a corker) with the first England match to follow (in a few hours ).
Their decision to opt for the relative comfort of an 'off-site' studio (adjacent to the impressive Brandenburg Gate) paid off in spades, the true value revealed when one faced the claustrophobic horror of ITV's Pundit’s Pit. 'Big' Sam Allerdyce did his impression of Roy Scheider in Jaws – ‘we're going to need a bigger chair’. The clue is in the name, boys; 'Big' Sam is likely to need a 'Big' chair, not something purloined from a junior classroom. The poor man appeared to have been restrained, as if he might leap across the pitifully small cube masquerading as a studio and throttle the oddly waxen-faced Gabby Logan. The usually beguiling daughter of one of Wales's finest seemed to struggle with a series of increasingly banal questions that had Ruud Gullit visibly squirming.

I couldn't help wondering if the authorities at the Gelsenkirchen AufSchalke Arena had forgotten they were coming and, to save an embarrassing scene, had found them a janitor’s cupboard at the last minute. The atmosphere was forced and uncomfortable, not helped by the paucity of the struggle between Ecuador and Poland. Gullit seemed almost embarrassed to be there, shoe-horned in between the hostess and a bleary-eyed Stuart Pearce. Someone really ought to offer Psycho a comb before he goes on national telly; he had the appearance of a man recently dragged from the wreckage of his post-binge hotel room, trapped rabbit-like in the technician’s stark headlights. I'm expecting better from the straight-shooting City boss as the tournament unfolds.

By contrast, Hansen, O'Neil (the master) and Shearer lounged comfortably, chatting easily from the safety of generous furniture like a bunch of old mates. Despite the slightly annoying whine of Jonathan Pearce (here comes that 'he's not really a Beeb man’ prejudice, folks) Mark Lawrenson played a blinder, offering insight and wit as the occasion demanded. For the second half of the second half I deployed my Red Button Technology (why oh why must we wait hours for the 'Interactive' service to kick in???) and followed the end of the match in the company of the excellent Alan Green.

By the time ITV take up the gauntlet on Saturday evening, unless the Beeb (or England) have had a stinker I'll be resorting to the radio for those matches screened on ‘the other side’.

BBC 1, ITV 0.

[El Gordo]

My view of proceedings became increasingly foggy as the evening wore on.

Alcohol, of course, played some part in this, but I also had to suffer the ramblings of one of the elderly locals in the boozer. Like many round here, he has discovered his allegiance to Reading FC rather late in life, in much the same way that lifelong agnostics reignite their childhood religiosity when they're within sight of the pearly gates.

It was hard enough focusing on the second half of the Poland - Ecuador game without my ear being bent by an extended broadsheet-special-in-depth-analysis-supplement-style presentation of the strengths and weaknesses of Madejski's anonymous-but-effective side. This was the same guy who, I'm certain, was a lifelong West Ham fan until last Christmas.

So I remember little about the game, and less about the half-time punditry. I did however notice Gabby Wotsit's eye make-up. Or rather, lack of. Something very odd happened to her on the way to the Champions League Final, and by the time she arrived in the hot seat she'd become a panda. I had to assume she was on her way to the Rocky Horror show after the big game. Last night, normal service had been resumed.

As for the football, a good start compared with other years. If (BIG IF) England win their group it's now looking a strong possibiity that they'll be up against Ecuador. A decent side but, if it happens, one we would normally be expected to overcome. They'll do me.

The ealier game saw some splendid goals but it wasn't a great contest. Costa Rica had one attack in the first half (from which they scored with a goal by ex-QPR player Wanchope) but apart from that seemed to be there just to provide their hosts with some shooting practice. So not a lot by which to judge Germany though their defence looks every bit as flimsy and as rigid as the pundits have been saying.

And on to this afternoon's game. Paraguay, by all objective accounts, are a better side than we give them credit for. Combined with long-standing tradition, which demands that England get off to a disappointing start, and this game has "draw" written all over it. The odds (around 9/4) aren't enticing enough for me, but that's my tip for the day. If I was going to have a bet (and I'm not) I'd combine it with banker-wins for Argentina and Sweden today for a 6/1 (ish) treble.

Anyway, time to mow the lawn in order to earn enough brownie points with which to enjoy the big game(s) in peace. At home this time.

[Sweder]

Mow the lawn???
I'm impressed - it's all I can do to pace about nervously feigning busy-ness.

I too have some concerns about Paraguay.
Not a sentence that one expects in this 'it's our year' year, but you have to say the South Americans have arrived in Germany for more than a sexy dance in the stands. Ecuador took full advantage of Poland's blunt attack to take the points last night and whilst I agree with Andy that they should pose no great threat to an in-form Engerland I saw enough chinks in the German armour to suggest a tough contest in Berlin on June 30th.

Over-achieving lesser-known latin side?
European middleweights light at the back/ lacking a killer finish?
Ooh-er missus

I'm not at all convinced about Owen despite his love of the big stage.
Crouch has performed moderately well against mediocre oppostition with little to play for. If England are to fulfill their potential goals will have to flow from midfield and, via set pieces, the centre backs. Rooney? As an England fan I'd love to see him play in the tournament. The erratic Joe Cole aside he is the one player we have who can rip a defensive side apart.

For all my pessimism I'll nail my colours to the mast of this gargantuan ship;
England will win this World Cup.

[El Gordo]

For all my pessimism I'll nail my colours to the mast of this gargantuan ship;
England will win this World Cup.

I'd love to be able to say the same thing, and really mean it. I just don't know. It's a cup competition, so there's a toss-of-a coin element as well as a rational assessment of talent and potential. On the latter, I don't doubt that England have what it takes to win. It's the former that worries me. Think of the hand-of-God goal in 86; the disallowed Sol Campbell goal against the Argies in 98. The disallowed England goal against Portugal in Euro 2004. The freak combination of Ronaldinho's wacky shot and Seaman's wacky attempt at a save in 2002. Paul Parker's shins at Italia 90.

All these incidents cost us our places. These things happen to other teams as well as of course. But they happen. These are the bits of grit blown about by the wind of destiny. Just a fragment hitting your eyeball at the wrong time, and the party's over.

That's why I can't call it. Needless to say I hope like mad that England will do it. I know we can do it, but they're not the same thing at all.

[Sweder]

A good start.
Excellent pastel colour shirt combo on the BBC bench complimented by a perfect start on the pitch. Personally I'd give the goal to Beckham - harsh to adjudge the mere brushing of brillcream an own goal.

Much better first half for me, too - four cans of draught Guinness safely tucked away. Barbeque may be a bit hap-hazzard this evening (I am the Chef du Jour) but hey - it's the World Cup.

One more thing - I don't like this Mexican ref much - far too picky at times, blind as a bat at others. So, no change there then England will need a second to put this away, but not bad, not bad at all.
A word of caution to Ashley Cole - if in doubt, put it in row Z son. That's all I'm saying.

[Sweder]

Oh dear. The ghost of 2002 has revisted.
Tactical nous? You're 'avin' a laff.

A win is a win is a win . . .
. . . but we missed a trick. A chance to send a message to the world.
And the message sent by Sven's team today?
Put us under pressure and Eriscsson will thrown the mighty Owen Hargreaves into the mix.

Let's take the three points and move on.
Plenty of room for improvement after a disjointed second half.
The good news is England will improve. And the Roonster can't be far away - any takers for anything after 70 minutes against T&T for the grand entrance?

Here's to a far more relaxed weekend, and good luck to the Cloggies

[El Gordo]

Let's sigh with relief and move on to the next trial at Nuremberg on Thursday. This was a laboured victory, but it was a victory, and when did a first tournament game ever fill us with confidence? Even 1966 began with a torpid 0-0 against Uruguay.

But you've got to worry about the lack of strikers in the squad. We have Crouch, two crocked forwards, and two inexperienced youngsters.

I'm convinced we'll get better than this but Rooney's planned resurrection will have to come off or we'll struggle to make much of an impression against anyone up front.

4 cans of Guinness in the first half? A strong start to the World Cup from Sweder. Over the 90 I worked my way through 3 pint bottles of excellent English ale: Marston's Pedigree, Shepherd Neame's Spitfire, and Badger's Golden Glory. The Badger was a new one to me, and well worth looking up. It contains 'extract of peach blossom' which gives it a floral tone on the nose and a slightly sweet, lingering aftertaste.

Crikey, is that the time? Next up, Sweden v Trinidad & Tobago is about to get underway. Must dash.

[Sweder]

Badger, eh?
A splendid Dorset brewery, producers of, in my humble view, the ultimate summer ale, Tanglefoot. Tanglefoot by name . . .

T&T are holding on. One suspects that Sweden will eventually overcome, but if they don't, so much the better. If it's as hot in Germany as it is in my back garden fair play to the England team earlier. Scorchio!

Frantic BBQ preparations continue in the aftermath of the Engalnd game and into the second match. Guests are scheduled to arrive at around 19:00 - Doctor Who start-time but a clear 60 minutes before Argentina meet Didier and the Elephants. I'm looking forward to that one.
Queue some rapid rattling of the outdoor cooking utensils.

Guinness consumption temporarily suspended in the interests of public health . . .
Bloody hell. T&T just had their left back sent off.
It's time to marinade the satay sticks . . .

[Mid Life Crisis Marathon Man]

Guinness consumption temporarily suspended...

What?! Chinks in the armour??!! I hope for England's sake your football team doesn't have a similar lack of stamina

[Sweder]

What?! Chinks in the armour??!! I hope for England's sake your football team doesn't have a similar lack of stamina

[Bigoted World Cup fanatic rant]Sorry, does anyone know this person?
My Mum told me not to talk to strangers . . .[/Bigoted World Cup fanatic rant]

Huzzah! This great tournament is off and running.
Looking forward to the Aussie/ Japan match this lunchtime (well, OK, it's at 2pm, but for the next week or so I'm on flexitime ). Tempting though it may be following our oval ball humiliation Down Under to support our Japanese friends I'll be cheering on the Green and Gold. Like Andy I struggle to use their self-styled nickname; it somehow drags this international spectacle down to the level of some contrived parochial event (like the Baseball World Series). Still, I wish them well. At least they’ll be less inclined to blame the heat for any poor performances. After all, they have the ultimate scapegoat in Harry Kewell

I thought the Dutch (hopefully this is an acceptable term for those who prefer wooden shoes and wear orange a lot) coped with the soaring temperatures rather better than ‘our’ boys, but then that’s probably just good old English pessimism tainting my normally rose-coloured spectacles. It’s not often Sir Alex Ferguson gets a show of public support from a player on his shit list, yet Ruud Van Nistelrooy did a pretty good job of showing the world why he’s been gathering Old Trafford bench splinters since the turn of the year – he almost made Michael Own look sharp (I said almost).

My ‘outsider’ tip for the tournament, Portugal, played with great industry and invention last night yet like their European neighbours failed to build on a great start.

Ronaldo was unlucky not to score. I’ll wager he has a better World Cup than his more experienced name-sake – rumours abound that the buck-toothed Brazilian Galactico has attained Seafront Plodder proportions – that is if he manages to remain a first team pick. ‘Big Phil’ Scolari will not have enjoyed his public petulance on leaving the pitch nor his tantrum that raged long after he donned his hi-vis safety vest. Methinks Christiano may need a sheepish and apologetic word with his manager this morning.

[ljs]

Hmm I wasn't convinced by the Dutch. If they can keep passing and pass accurately then maybe. The real problem is the dutch defence. Not to worried about mid-field and strikers. My adopted nation the problem doesn't seem defence, it is the attack that has me worried. They need to win against T&T as we know the swedes will play with 11 goalies, and I can't see where a goal is going to come from, or am I being harsh?

Agree though that Van the Man looked about as unsharp as it gets, but we have at least some others who can take his place.

As of Friday I can wear all the orange I like and even wear orange clogs as I will be in the Netherlands for 2 weeks. If we get knocked in the group stage, I can do my crying in good company. I still don't think we'll get past the group stages, both Argentina and Ivory coast worry me big style